Methodology: How IABET Makes, Locks and Grades AI Picks

Quick answer

Lock time:

A pick is locked when it is published in the app, always before the event starts; after that it cannot be edited or deleted.

Grading:

Win, loss, push or void, against the official final result of the market the pick names.

Hit rate formula:

Wins ÷ (wins + losses). Pushes and voids are listed in the ledger but excluded from the hit rate.

Bands:

Reported separately for 70-79% (Free), 80-89% (Hobby) and 90-100% (Serious) confidence.

Minimum confidence:

No pick under 70% confidence is published.

Record coverage:

Every published pick since May 2026. Status today: graded history is being loaded; ledger cells read Pending.

1. How a pick is made

For every game the model scores 1,000+ factors (form, matchups, pace, rest and travel, injuries and lineups, home and away splits, market movement and more), then simulates the game 100,000+ times with Monte Carlo sampling. The share of simulations in which an outcome happens becomes its probability; the pick's confidence score is that probability, and the edge is the gap between it and the probability implied by the odds.

2. When picks lock

• Every pick is stored with the timestamp at which it was published in the app.
• Picks are published before the event's scheduled start. A pick time-stamped after the start is not counted.
• Once published a pick is never edited, re-graded to a different market or removed from the record.
• If a pick is withdrawn before the start (for example after a late injury), the withdrawal and its time stay visible as a void, not deleted.

3. Grading rules: win, loss, push, void

• Win: the market resolves in the pick's favour according to the official final result (including overtime or extra time only where the market includes it).
• Loss: the market resolves against the pick.
• Push: the result lands exactly on the line (for example a total of 220 on over/under 220), so the stake would be returned. Listed, not counted in the hit rate.
• Void: the event is postponed beyond its scheduled day, abandoned without an official result, or a player prop's player does not take part, so the market is cancelled. Listed, not counted.
• Results come from the official league result once it is final; later stat corrections do not change a grade after it is published, unless the league changes the final result itself.

4. How confidence bands work

The confidence score is the model's probability for the pick, from 70% to 100% (picks below 70% are not published). Picks are grouped into three bands that match the plans: 70-79% (Free), 80-89% (Hobby) and 90-100% (Serious).

A band is calibrated if its picks win about as often as their confidence says, for example roughly 8 in 10 for 80% picks over a large sample. Calibration, not one hot streak, is what tells you whether a confidence score can be trusted. Even a well-calibrated 90% pick loses about 1 time in 10.

5. How accuracy and ROI will be computed and published

• Hit rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses), shown per confidence band and per sport, always with n (the number of graded picks).
• Units / ROI: 1 unit flat stake per pick at the odds recorded when the pick locked; ROI = net units ÷ units staked.
• Periods: since the record start (May 2026) and a rolling last 30 days, each with an explicit as-of date.
• Every graded pick is listed, losses included, so anyone can recompute the figures.
• No figure is published until the sample is graded automatically from the ledger; numbers from screenshots or hand-picked days are never used.

6. What IABET does not do

• IABET does not take bets and is not a sportsbook.
• IABET never promises guaranteed wins; every pick is a probability.
• IABET does not restart the record, hide losing days or count pushes as wins.